Market study results

A market study was conducted by Arthur D. Little in 2009.

It was financed by the Lyon Carex association's private members: Aéroports de Lyon - Air France Cargo - Fedex - Dimotrans group - La Poste - TNT - WFS and by Lyons Chamber of Commerce and Industry.

The Lyon Carex offer considered in the study

The Carex transport offer considered in the study mainly corresponds to express transport and, to a lesser extent, traditional air courier services, i.e. service offers privileging a short delivery time with air packaging between airport platforms.

The transport offer in the study is available in 3 services: express, rapid and differed with delivery times of between D+1 and D+3.

The Carex offer characteristics observed in the study make it a rapid, secure, reliable, regular and flexible mode of transport adapted to transporting air freight and respectful of the environment.

Results

The traffic flow analysis indicates that LYS/Roissy CDG is the main route in the first launch phase with a volume potential for Lyons Carex.

• LYS-CDG route: 262 t/d in 2008 - 321 t/d in 2015 - 385 t/d in 2020
• LYS-LGG route: 9 t/d in 2008 - 11 t/d in 2015 - 13 t/d in 2020
• LYS-AMS route: 25 t/d in 2008 - 31 t/d in 2015 - 37 t/d in 2020

The increase in eligible volumes is based on three scenarios:

a rather conservative reference scenario - a median scenario and an optimistic scenario with more aggressive assumptions.

Three criteria for configuring the results: the traffic flows for the base potential identified on the existing system, the existing traffic flows that do not transit via LYS and that may be captured by the Carex service and a more or less rapid increase in modal transfers.

• Reference scenario: 1 return train at start-up for transporting a minimum of 66t/d, then 2 return trains 4 years later for a minimum of 226t/d and finally 3 return trains per day in 2020 for a minimum of 434 t/d.
• Median scenario: 1 return train per day for the 1^st year of the launch with a minimum of 184 t/d then rapidly 3 return trains per day for an estimated 638 t/d in 2020.
• Optimistic scenario: 2 return trains per day from start-up for 221 t/d before rapidly increasing to 3 and then 4 return trains for an estimated 775 t/d in 2020.

New traffic flows not estimated in this study should be created after 2020 with the developments planned in the next Carex stages with regard to commissioning high-speed lines, in particular the Lyons-Turin, Lyons-Barcelona and Lyons-Frankfurt/Cologne routes.

By then, Lyon Carex may be established as a gateway to Southern Europe for high-speed freight transport combined with air transport.

Conclusion

The Carex service is a new niche in freight transport. Everything remains to be constructed in terms of service in order to meet the new emerging needs in relation to market development and environmental regulations.

In addition to express freight which is Carex's "business", new market segments related to air transport and courier services will also to be won from shippers, air companies and customers.